For Once, Aliyev May Be Right

Armenia against any perceived threat from Turkey. Yet the foreign policy establishment in Moscow finds it perfectly compatible with its policy to sell $100 million worth of weapons to Turkey.

The West is interested in winning over the Azeri leadership to have access to that country’s energy resources and to wean it away from Moscow. This is the same policy Britain exercised in 1919, trying to convince Armenians in Karabagh to accept Azeri rule “temporarily,” until the status of the territory was determined at the Paris Peace Conference. The Armenian National Council of Karabagh refused the British diktat, risking the destruction of the region by Sultanov’s forces, a “governor” handpicked and imposed on the locals by Britain.

The population in Armenia is dwindling and it certainly is not increasing in Karabagh. Any solution to the Karabagh problem will surely include a popular referendum on the status of the territory. Baku’s leadership may wait out and when Armenians lose the critical mass in the territory, they may agree to a referendum, after having calculated the outcome.

Foreign investments in Armenia and Karabagh are very slow, hampering job creation and economic recovery. The dysfunctional legal system also does not encourage foreign investments. Even local oligarchs have moved some of their businesses outside the country.

There are some bright spots and valiant undertakings in a rather gloomy background. For example, recently a local benefactor, Levon Hayrabetyan, financed the weddings of 700 couples in Karabagh, also pledging to set up trust funds for children born out of those marriages. That was an individual initiative, which can only go so far. A similar national program must be adopted and implemented by both governments.

Another investor from the diaspora established a meat processing plant in Karabagh, spending $1 million. When asked by a journalist what he would do with his investment if we lose Karabagh, he responded: “I will not cry over my one million, as I will have a bigger loss to cry about.”

These are acts of courage few and far in between. A more massive program is needed to stop the hemorrhage and to put Armenia and Karabagh back on the path towards revitalization.

Unfortunately, a rudderless diaspora is no help, either. We are fragmented and trivialized like never before. Lay and religious leaders of national prominence who commanded respect ironically disappeared from the scene just when they were most needed, as Armenia attained independence.

There is a national emergency but we don’t seem to feel a sense of urgency.

Armenia’s depopulation will mean a catastrophe of historic magnitude. We must not let Aliyev’s design come true. We waited for six centuries to finally have an independent homeland. Can we survive another six centuries if we lose this opportunity?

In view of the gravity of this situation, all of our current priorities pale and should thus receive corresponding importance; they lose their significance completely should Armenia fail. This traumatic situation must move all Armenians with a passion in order to stop the downfall. It is a nightmarish prospect — and obsession will be forgiven in pursuit of a solution.

We need to disprove Aliyev and all the enemies of Armenia. Is any one listening?