Post-Election Developments in Armenia

None of the above requests have been met, although the conversation has been courteous and non-confrontational. People truly appreciate Hovannisian’s civil demeanor in all these dealings.

He has returned to the Freedom Square rally and has vowed to continue the struggle through constitutional means until he achieves victory. His slogan is “salute to Armenia” and many people have already began to characterize his movement as the “Revolution of Salute.” This, of course, is reminiscent of the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia and the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine. Both movements were replete with youth trained through the Soros Foundation. They were alien injections in those respective societies and not homegrown movements.

There is no doubt in anyone’s mind in Armenia that the Heritage Party is supported by the West and particularly by the US and there are no qualms about that perception. In his original platform Hovannisian had questioned the existence of the Russian military base in Armenia and asked for the revision of the treaty. That statement clearly indicated where he was coming from. During his speeches he has also outlined his foreign policy: He has said that the issue of Protocols is dated. By 2015 either Armenia establishes its diplomatic relations with Turkey without any preconditions or Yerevan presents its claims to Turkey. He has also said that one should not assume that the recognition of Nagorno Karabagh is out of the question, since Kosovo and East Timor have been recognized. This, of course, is easier said than done.

He makes it sound as if these political goals are easily attainable and it is this particular administration which is unwilling or incapable of achieving them.

First of all Armenia may ask to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey without preconditions, but what about the other party, Ankara? Doesn’t Ankara have its own preconditions?

Second, the recognition of Karabagh by the Armenian government is equivalent to a declaration of war. Historic justice is on the Armenian side but the other side is the one with the global political might.

Throughout the election campaign the ARF was waiting in the wings. It did not produce its own presidential candidate nor did it extend its support to any of the running candidates. Its election proclamation did not even mention Raffi Hovannisian. Instead, it stated that the party supports the “will of the people,” the equivalent of suggesting they like mom and apple pie. But with Hovannisian’s success comes a dramatic development: Armen Rustamian, an ARF leader, spoke at the Heritage Party’s rally and he began his speech by saying: “the Freedom Square was waiting for the ARF and here we come.” It seems once they thought they were behind a sure bet, they threw their weight behind the insurgent. They let Raffi pick the chestnuts from the fire and now they are ready to share in the victory.

Also joining the rally was Nikol Pashinian, who is always present whenever incendiary speeches are needed and insults are needed to be hurled at the president and the current administration.

The elections were not 100 percent honest by any means. Improvements are slow to come but they are already perceptible. Hovannisian’s emergence as a credible opposition leader will certainly expedite the improvement process. His presence and daily demonstrations are also a testament to the fact that the opposition can exist in Armenia.

However, those who voted for Sargisian had Armenia’s stability in mind. He is not a leader that will throw Armenia into an adventurous course. He is a man of peace and with his reelection there is some assurance that war is not yet an option.

Some pundits even have high hopes and beliefs that Mr. Sargisian is the leader capable of curbing the appetite of oligarchs.

During this post-election turmoil, there is a profusion of advice to Raffi Hovannisian. Die-hard opposition elements would like to see the struggle carried to the bitter end. Others have been advising him to capitalize on his success and negotiate a position of power to bring about change and reform. Two former prime ministers and presidential candidates, namely, Vazken Manoukian and Hrant Bagratian, have been advancing the idea of a coalition government with the ruling party. Some people even believe that Hovannisian is being manipulated and supported by outside forces and consequently he has to take into account their political agenda.

Armenia needs stability. The Turkish news media is already anticipating a crisis in Armenia and Azerbaijan is intensifying cross-border skirmishes, especially in the Tavoush region.

Change is needed, reforms are necessary and the people are desperate. But reforms cannot be achieved without concrete plans. Much of the change also depends on outside factors. No matter who heads the government, Armenia cannot lift the blockade nor can it resolve the Karabagh conflict overnight. What can be changed are the internal factors only: the end of corruption, the intensification of the economic recovery and a rule of law.

At this time, much hinges on Raffi Hovannisian’s actions. He can prove to be a spoiler or a true reformer. If he chooses wisely, he will be a part of Armenian history.