No Surprises at Armenia’s Parliamentary Elections

The latter hit the nail right on the head. Because it is not in the interest of the authorities to allow any disturbances on election day.

As the European agencies provide electronic equipment to better monitor the election process, cheating and fraud by the interested parties rises to a more sophisticated level. The observers could not provide much documentation of fraud on election day, but they were able to detect vote buying and institutional pressure.

Regional governors (marzpets) are tolerated despite the criminal conduct of many because they are a necessary evil on election day. They have to deliver the votes to the ruling party. Similarly, schools, universities, hospitals and government institutions become election machines to cater to the Republican Party. That is why there is little underhanded action left to be conducted on election day itself.

Besides the foreign observers, some criticism was expressed on the domestic front. Levon Zurabian, a leader of the Congress-HShK, charged that the Armenian authorities held “yet another disgraceful election.”

Speaking to Azatutyun.am, Zurabian accused the Republican Party of handing out bribes. He also claimed that the government loyalists systematically breached the secrecy of the ballot to make sure that the bribed or intimidated citizens vote for the right people.

To counter all criticism, foreign and domestic, the Republican Party Spokesman Eduard Sharmazanov, declared at a press conference that the vote was “democratic, transparent and competitive.” Citing the election results, he said that the party headed by President Serzh Sargsyan is well placed to again form Armenia’s government. He said that the Republican Party is ready to extend its power-sharing arrangement with the ARF but would not draw on its other coalition partners.

Initially the ARF was trailing below the 6 percent level until it got a last-minute boost from the government election machinery to secure the election of seven members to the parliament.

Sharmazanov’s caution to extend power-sharing to other parties is well understood in light of past experience with the Tsarukyan group. Tsarukyan had formed a coalition with the Republican Party, until he began to veer off the script and into the opposition camp. When the tax authorities began inspecting his businesses, he was shaken and for a while withdrew from politics altogether; once burnt, twice shy. This time around, he is very cautious. Although he commands the second strongest contingent in the parliament, he has only made vague statements about his future plans.

Now the ARF enters into the coalition with the Republicans; it may never become a threat to its partner because of its size. It can only help.

This time around, Tsarukyan will remain under vigilant scrutiny not to veer off course again.

Yelk will remain the most vocal opposition in the parliament, though without too much clout. The alliance, headed by Edmond Maroukyan, Sassoun Grigorian and Nigol Pashinyan, had proved to be the most vociferous critic of the administration. It serves as a safety valve for public discontent. Yelk will be the third largest group in parliament.

ORO, Congress, Free Democrats and the Communist Party have all been wiped out by design. The head of the Armenian Congress, former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, contributed enormously to the loss of his coalition by advocating, during the campaign, the return of territories to Azerbaijan to buy peace.

Political analysts Viguen Hakobyan and Aram Safaryan had been wondering what happened to the West-leaning voters during the election. It was estimated that 25 percent of the electorate favored a Western orientation for the country. Hakobyan says those votes were “pulverized.” ORO in particular was perceived as West-leaning, featuring two former foreign ministers. They were eliminated from the political arena. That does not augur well for the complexion of the parliament, from the viewpoint of Western governments.

The Republican Party did not promise much to the citizens, except for some vague slogans. It won the election simply because it controlled the election machine. It is responsible for the past miseries of economic decline, depopulation and defeat in Karabakh. The only hope remains the pledge that Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan brought from Russian Armenian tycoons to invest heavily in Armenia. If that is not an election trick, Armenia can certainly benefit.

The parliamentary elections fared well. The potential for an explosion, however, looms down the road. Should Karapetyan’s popularity continue to rise, he will be on a collision path with Sargsyan, who is looking for a comeback as prime minister after his presidential term ends in 2018.